Via: West Auroran News
Axdelian government delivers its ultimatum, but why take action on Rodenia at all? And why resort to force?
By Lila Ñali, MSc
With warships amassing in the Seas surrounding Rodenia an Puntalia, the Axdelian Government finally delivered its ultimatum, detailing a treaty that would supplant the Puntalian compromise treaty established in 2020. The main demand made is that the two Puntalias will be reunited into a single democratic country again, and (?)that the Lima y Limon islands be returned to the unified state. It also mandates that Rodenia permanently disestablish its military bases in the Reunified Puntalia, withdraw all military personnel and return any requisitioned equipment or materiel to the unified state. The Ultimatum makes no demands of Packilvania to reduce its support of the dictatorship, nor requesting that Kirk Santon be deposed as many sources suggested would occur. The Ultimatum was consigned by Norgsveldet, Alksearia, Vistaraland, and New Puntalia. Whilst supportive of the terms included in the ultimatum, the president of New Puntalia Jorge Fernandez-Garcia cautioned Diego Corbinn against rushed military action. A full breakdown of the ultimatum and its terms is available in https://crouton.net/.
But how did we get here? Since this crisis began, Axdels brash and unexpected decisions have divided opinions and drawn both admiration and ire from the international community. Reports from Puntalia itself, although often filtered through state media, show scenes of disruptive pro-unification riots in the streets of many major cities protesting against the Rodenia-backed regime, with the old Puntalian flag seen waving alongside Axdel’s. Critics both domestic and international have assaulted the Axdelian government with questions, trying to rationalise how one of the foremost bastions of nonaggression and peace could suddenly shift its foreign policy strategy on Rodenia so suddenly. Many have tried to find explanations, with losses in certain industries such as iron ore and steel, the countries desire to gain closer ties with the anti-Rodenia UCA, and Corbinns Democratic Socialist Party needing to reinforce its coalition with the anti-fascist LSUP for the next general election being regularly cited. Official government sources have continued to cite the PCT’s failures as the reason for this drastic intervention, which has left many people unsatisfied but sheds some light on the bigger picture of Axdelian geopolitical strategy. That is, It is possible that the Axdelian Government considers Rodenia both an economic and ideological threat.
Rodenia has shown that it is willing to further the influence of its ultracapitalist ideology and its crusade against communism by invading neighbouring states on vague accusations that they have been influenced or infiltrated by communists with its direct support of the Puntalian military coup in 2020. With Packilvania extending a helping hand and Morstaybishlia willing to use force to avoid a war on its doorstep, it was thought by many that Puntalia would be entirely subsumed as a puppet state of Rodenia. Even the PCT failed to completely snub this reality, and the broadly disliked treaty neatly cleaved the formerly prosperous and stable Puntalia into two weaker, easily influenced states. Since then Rodenia has been relatively quiet, biding its time balancing its positive relationships with its ACC allies and Packilvania. However a more immediate effect of the invasion’s success has been the emboldening of far right ultracapitalist movements in other South Arcturian states. The White Hand organisation in Lokania is by far the largest and most prominent of these, with a reported 2 million affiliated people including a well trained and organised paramilitary division which has been considered a terrorist organisation after performing several attacks on foreign dignitaries. Despite Lokania officially opposing this group, its deadly attack on the Norgsveltian embassy immediately following Axdels withdrawal from the PCT shows it is still a strong presence within the nation.
Using Puntalia as precedent, a potential future scenario for Rodenia expanding its influence would be to support these groups either directly to take control of a nation, like we saw in Puntalia, or indirectly through potentially training paramilitary groups and supplying equipment. With Axdel aligning itself against Rodenia with its trade boycott in 2020, the emerging ultracapitalist sphere would seek stronger ties with friendlier nations such as Packilvania, which has demonstrated it is willing to go to great lengths to expand its influence and could easily dominate the region with its economic strength in the face of opposition from the UCA, Axdel and other democratic forces. Even though White Hand has no official connection to Rodenia, they share the same ideological goals and thus in some ways they are considered a single threat. Thus in order to prevent such a scenario, it is prudent for Axdel to take action against this emergent threat and destroy the precedent, as well as building alliances with groups such as the UCA who have the same interests in protecting the region’s stability.
Finally, why has Axdel forgone all potential diplomatic solutions and gone straight for an ultimatum against Puntalia? A strong show of force, if successful in causing Rodenia an Packilvania to back down, would gain Axdel the international standing it has strove for; to continue to promote itself as a bastion of stability and peace on an increasingly uneasy continent, and rapidly distance itself from the crumbling Central and East Auroran spheres. The rapid action with confusing motives is a new strategy by the country which has left its opponents scrambling to respond in ways which may be detrimental for their international standing. This can be seen with Vistaraland, a former member of the Rodenia-founded ACC, renouncing its neutrality due to Rodenia’s panicked efforts to solidify their economic and military relationship, which may have a catastrophic effect on the feasibility of a potential Packilvanian intervention. Such chaos may be beneficial for achieving its goals quickly. The IF has also been ineffective in curbing Rodenia before, as seen in the 2020 crisis, so it is unlikely that any attempt to appeal there alone would have any results, and would ultimately just delay the transition to where we are today.
Nonetheless, an Axdelian speech in the general council is expected in the coming days now that the ultimatum has been delivered. That is if they do intend to clarify their intentions at this point in time.
*Opinion piece
