Kelssek general election 2010

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Federal elections set for October 11
31 AUGUST 2010 - NEORVINS

Kelssek’s 41st general election will be held on October 11, it was announced today, as President Dominique Drapeau dissolved the House of Commons at the advice of Prime Minister Peter Coakson, who will be contesting his first election as party leader of the Green Party of Kelssek.

While the elections come over 14 months before legally required, the early dissolution was not unexpected given the fixed dates for presidential and Congress of Lords elections next year and sustained hints from 25 Essex that one would be held by the end of this year to avoid a potential “triple dissolution” election.

Coakson is seeking to establish a mandate of his own and analysts widely agree that the election is his to lose. Coakson has been in a low-key campaign mode over the summer, touring the country and unveiling promises including the construction of a nationwide fiber optic network, reviving an infrastructure policy proposal from the 2007 election.

The opposition parties have been preparing too, with Liberal leader Pierre Gautain and Conservative leader Angela Swan both embarking on fundraising tours during the summer, while the United Communist Party, the Greens’ coalition partners, has been rallying supporters and last week released a revised platform, having likely been privy to the election date.

The Liberals are the closest challengers in opinion polls, but Pierre Gautain has a lot of work ahead if he aims to become Prime Minister again. While his party seems in good shape, his personal popularity and credibility have taken a battering over the false accusations that Coakson had blocked the promotion of a former classmate and a much-ridiculed air rage incident which saw him being handcuffed and fined for abusive behaviour aboard a commercial flight.

Party insiders warn that Gautain has to abandon the Liberals’ mantra of shrinking government and cutting taxes, with many convinced that such issues do not resonate with voters. Many instead want Gautain to fight the Greens on sustainability and fiscal issues.

For slightly more background, see this - http://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=18331

The main players:
http://nswiki.net/index.php?title=Peter_Coakson
http://nswiki.net/index.php?title=Pierre_Gautain
http://nswiki.net/index.php?title=Anne_Marsha_Cressey

I haven’t written an article for Angela Swan yet, but I will soon.

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Kelssek, you planning to do one of your little podcasts? I missed hearing to your Canadian voice. :slight_smile:

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OOC: Not had a lot of time for that, sorry.

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Election notebook

Liberal Party leader Pierre Gautain has come out of his corner fighting as the federal election campaign got underway yesterday, attacking the Green Party for the formation of a coalition with the United Communist Party and warning against “watermelon votes”.

“Voting for the Green Party is going to be a vote for a watermelon. It’s green on the outside and but you’re also going to get the Communists.” he told a crowd in Kirkenes as he kicked off his party’s campaign. “The Liberal Party is interested in winning government and governing in our own right, because we want a progressive and fiscally responsible future for this country. We will not contemplate any deal with a party whose vision is for our country to remain mired in mediocrity.”

Meanwhile, the Conservatives have put forward a “new, progressive conservative direction” with what appears to be a move towards the centre. Party leader Angela Swan is expected to unveil her plans in the coming days for the building a “greater society”, a package of social and economic reforms. The party is still largely in a rebuilding mood but already criticism has resulted with some bemoaning the similarity with the United Communist Party’s “future vision” platform.

With the Greens and the Liberals seeming to be the leaders in the race, the Greens have focused their attacks at the Liberals, with Prime Minister Peter Coakson today claiming that the Liberals “offer no real alternatives or any clear direction” for the country.

“If Pierre Gautain wants to go on about cutting spending all the time, he needs to tell the Kelssekian people what he’s going to cut, how much, what the consequences will be, and they’ve not done that. At the heart of it they’re just small-government fundamentalists.” he said at a rally today.

The latest polling, which includes for the first time responses taken after the dissolution of Parliament, show the Green Party has a strong lead with the Liberals in second place, but 8 percentage points adrift.

The current numbers
Green: 39
Liberal: 31
UCP: 15
Conservative: 12

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— Begin quote from ____

OOC: Not had a lot of time for that, sorry.

— End quote

Shame. :frowning:

Hope you do record one in the near future. :slight_smile:

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Good evening everyone and welcome to The Swingers, the show that puts the mock in democracy. Now, it’s week two of the election campaign and despite the constant assurances to keep it clean and run a positive campaign, things inevitably get ugly of course and it’s finally emerged as the United Communist Party proposed changing the school year to break up the long summer holiday. Now, depending on province and school district there’s variation here and there but schoolkids in this country are pretty much left to their own devices for two and a half months between July and September and we have one of the shortest school years in the world. This in in addition, of course, to another four weeks of holiday in Christmas and in the spring. Now, research has shown that this isn’t very good because the long break means lots of students come to class in the fall having forgotten a lot of what they learnt in the spring, and children from poorer backgrounds suffer the worst from this because they don’t get to go to summer camp and take trips to Pacitalia where they can be indoctrinated in capitalist bourgeois heresies. The UCP proposed encouraging the provinces, because it’s the provincial government who can actually make this change not the federal, to break up the summer break, shorten it to one and a half months, and redistribute through the school year so the kids actually have more breaks, since they are communists after all. Now, how did the Greens respond? Here’s the Education Minister Thérèse Daudet, who is basically responsible for the nation’s kids:

“It’s an interesting proposal and worth considering but there will be concerns from parents who are happy with the long summer break.”

Yes, of course it’s good to have a good stretch of time off where youth can develop as people outside the classroom and have a good time. What did the Liberals have to say?

“The summer holiday is a cherised national tradition and we’re not going to take that away from Kelssekians.”

Ooooh yes, those Communists are summer stealers. It was Conservative candidate George Moore who took the caek, however:

“It’s just typical of the Communists to want to enslave our children in school all the time.”

And so we can see that reorganising the school year is equivalent to child slavery. That’s not all for the nefarious communist plot, however, as Moore went on:

“It’s a hidden agenda to attack the family as the left always does.”

So some Conservatives say crazy things. It’s part of their charm, really. And it doesn’t hurt you if the voters in your riding really do believe that the UCP are a bunch of baby-eaters. Where it does hurt you is if you undermine your own party’s strategy. And it’s long been a source of difficulties for them trying to make headway in cities because what we call the “new Kelssekian” vote of naturalised immigrants heavily populate urban areas and sees them as anti-immigrant. The party leader Angela Swan wants to change all that:

“I think part of my task is to convince new arrivals in this country that the Conservative Party shares their values and priorities, of family, community, individual rights, law and order, which are very similar to those of new Kelssekians.”

All well and good but it’s a bit of a problem when you’ve got one of your backbenchers mouthing off like Patrick Leossen:

“Our country is changing and something needs to be done so that people who come here know that in this country you aren’t allowed to burn your wife for displeasing you.”

Now in the last episode we asked viewers to send in any strange election leaflets, banners, and things they’ve received and here’s one sent in by Theo Ratcliffe of Breton who got this pamphlet in the mail from the incumbent Liberal MP. Here we are, it says, “Vote for change. Re-elect Russ Donnelly.”

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OOC: Curious question, Kelssek. Any particular vulnerable seats in your most recent election?

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A sample of election ads:


[Of course there are plenty of marginal seats, but it’s not my intention to highlight that angle in particular.]

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LIBERALS BACKTRACK ON SPORTS FUNDING

The Liberal Party is taking down one of its election advertisements just 24 hours after it was put up, in a major gaffe that has generated widespread national publicity after an Olympic champion publicly lamblasted it.

The ad, a billboard placed in two Saint-Rémy transit stations, features a picture of Olympic medal-winning alpine skiier Jean-Luc Lacroix and large text, in French, saying “You don’t need to be paying $14 million for his skiing trips”. It is part of a wider national campaign targeting areas of spending the Liberals say they will cut back on if they win government in the upcoming federal election.

It sparked an angry reaction from Lacroix, who told the KBC that he was “extremely angry” and said that it “feels like a personal attack.”

“I cannot believe they are doing this to me. It makes me very upset, that I work so hard for the love of my sport, and they attack me like this.”

A media relations spokesperson for the Liberal Party clarified that it was never meant to be interpreted as singling out Lacroix, or alpine skiing, as unworthy of support, but rather to question whether taxpayer money should be used to fund sports associations.

“We are very sorry it was interpreted this way, particularly by Mr. Lacroix, and we apologise for any offence we have caused. The message was meant to be that our athletes, such as Mr. Lacroix, don’t need public support and could instead be getting sponsors from the private sector, especially when they are as well known as he is.”

The spokesperson also clarified that the figure referred to the entire amount of support given by the federal government to Alpine Kelssek for the year of 2009, and “does not specifically refer to the amount spent on supporting any athlete.”

A carded Alpine Kelssek athlete, the highest funding status, receives a stipend of $3,000 a month and has most training, coaching, and competition-related travel expenses covered.

Other parties have been quick to capitalise on the furore. Prime Minister Peter Coakson pointed to the success at the recent Olympics as proof that the money “pays off”.

“This government has always been committed to helping athletes at every level achieve excellence. There’s clear benefits for us all. The joy and pride our nation felt during the summer Olympics in Outineau, you can’t put a price on that.” he said.

Conservative leader Angela Swan said that the ads showed the Liberals were “out of touch with ordinary Kelssekians” and promised her party would support sports funding.

“Our sports facilities are what brings communities together, whether it’s the rink, the field, but perhaps they think they’re above that.” she said, referring to the Liberal Party.

United Communist Party leader Anne Marsha Cressey, who herself competed in ski racing as a youth, drew from her own experience in slamming the thrust of the ads.

“It’s an expensive sport, but it was one that helped me learn important lessons, make some great friends, and grow as a person, and it would have been inaccessible to me without the equipment programs Alpine Kelssek ran. And it’s not about just winning medals or competing internationally, it’s also about the 12-year old whose family can’t afford the expensive equipment for a sport like alpine skiing, or hockey, for that matter. It’s about helping our citizens maintain physical activity for life and being healthier and happier people because of it. Sports are who we are as a nation and Mr. Gautain doesn’t understand that.”

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OOC: I don’t suppose you let another nation’s media interview your candidates huh?

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[If you’ve been wondering about this, it’s meant to be a political satire show specially made for the election. Excellent RL examples of this include the BBC’s Vote Now Show and the ABC’s [url=http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=yes+we+canberra]Yes We Canberra!]


“Welcome once again to the show everyone, now everyone’s talking about the French debate between the party leaders last night. Pierre Gautain had a bit of an advantage, of course, while for the Conservatives Angela Swan’s poor French skills were somewhat of a concern during that party’s leadership vote… so how did she do?”

[video clip from the debate] “Je… je… je… suis hereusement… non, sorry, I mean, pardon. Let me start again… je vais commencer… recommencer?”

“At some point you really did have to feel sorry for the translator.”

“Actually, it got worse. You’ve heard of “franglais”, when an English-speaker gets in way over their head trying to speak French and ends up sticking in random English words hoping they translate exactly. Well, I don’t know if that’s what Angela Swan was speaking, but she was speaking something…”

“Nous avons devoir de la… budget surplus. C’est très important. Nous ne pouvons pas avoir le… très beaucoup… debt… public debt mais maintenant il y a un millard dollars. Les autres partis ne recogniser pas…! Le statistics est fabrication!”

“Le statistics est fabrication, ladies and gentlemen! But what about the prime minister? Peter Coakson, former diplomat, surely he can speak a few languages?”

“Well, the prime minister’s performance was good overall but he got stuck on agricultural policy.”

[video clips of Peter Coakson mispronouncing “mais”] “…maize… maize… maize…”

“But what else was the debate about besides cringing at three people attempting to speak French for one and a half hours?”

“Well, one odd part of the debate was when Pierre Gautain accused the government of doing nothing about a bedbug infestation apparently running rampant through hotels in western Beaulac.”

“Interesting, so could bedbugs become a sleeper issue in this election?”

[crowd groans]

“We sent our man Jules to check it out.”

[One of the comedians, topless and covered in (fake) red welts runs ambushes Pierre Gautain as he gets out of his car.] “Mr. Gautain! Monsieur Gautain! I know you’re very concerned about the bedbugs! I need some help. I have this cream, see, but I can’t reach this spot…” [The “serious” media film and photograph Gautain applying ointment to his back]

“Well, he’s certainly taking action on the issue.”

“…so we’re very glad to have with us in the studio today, the deputy prime minister, junior coalition partner, Minister of Labour, and suspected communist, Anne Marsha Cressey!”

“Great to have you join us, thanks so much for doing this.”

“It’s very nice to be here.”

“Ms. Cressey, you were an alpine ski racer, so I assume you know quite a bit about going downhill quickly… so how do you think the Liberals are doing, or do you think you’re capable of going downhill even quicker?”

“Well, I think me and the United Communist Party, right now we’re on the gondola going up and I think we’ll be on the up for the forseeable future. I think we’re convincing more and more people that we’re the right party to lead this country into the future and to stand up for the values of our society.”

“When Pierre Gautain got put in handcuffs for going mental on an airplane, was that a happy moment for you?”

“Well… I was as amused as any other person would be… but can you really see him as Prime Minister?”

“He’s been Prime Minister before.”

“That didn’t work out very well did it?”

“True. Now, I know everyone keeps pressing you for an answer to this question, and I’m sorry if I’m putting you in a spot, but are you a communist?”

“(laughing) Yes. I believe that transitioning to a post-capitalist society is the most rational and moral direction for us, and indeed, every society and people in the world, to make.”

“So you’re a communist.”

“Yes, I am a communist.”

“Oh wow. You’ve actually admitted it on television. So folks, you heard it here, on this show. Anne Marsha Cressy, the deputy prime minister, leader of the United Communist Party, is a communist. How do you think this will affect you in the polls?”

“I think it’ll help me immensely.”

“Great. Wow, I can’t believe you’ve come out and said that. You know, usually I think of communists as being very loud lesbians who stand on the street trying to get you to donate to the Trotskyist League. Do you ever worry you’re going to end up like that?”

“Well, I’ve always been more a fan of the United Communist Party, myself.”

“And that’s the show for tonight. Before we go we always ask our audience to send in any strange election-related pamphlets or ads they’ve seen. So here’s some photos of Liberal ads in the Kirkenes subway where in the white bit where they say “I’m voting for jobs for the future”, “the healthcare system’s future”, yadda yadda yadda, look at this one, someone’s pasted “A FUCKING TIME MACHINE” over it… and I like the second one, which says “I’m voting for MEANINGLESS CLICHES”. Thanks to Terry from Newmarket, Noua Cymru for that. And thanks to Geraldine from Burnaby who sent in a photo of a Green Party billboard where after the “Together we can” slogan, someone’s spray-painted “rob more banks”. Join us next time on The Swingers, from all of us, good night!”

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OOC: Based on local polls, which party will likely get the most seats and will that party hold an absolute majority or will they get the biggest slice of the pie by a pluarity.

Bai Lung’s midterms (basing this on US mid-terms but the political system is semi-presidential) will be held on November 2nd.

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[OOC: Please. I am going to do this how I want to do it. In any case you should already have gotten the sense that the Liberals aren’t doing too well.]

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OOC: I gathered there is something wrong with the Liberals but I just love mentioning polls, Kelssek. In any democratic country, the opinion pollings are an indication of the current mood of the country. :stuck_out_tongue: If I’m bugging you a little, then I apologise. I was a little excited in the previous post.

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Coakson calls for “strong mandate” as discontent grows in his riding

Peter Coakson has concluded the English-language party leaders debate with a call for voters to give his Green Party a “strong mandate” to lead the country.

“I’m the only leader standing here tonight with the right experience, the right team, and the right agenda that will deliver real solutions and stand up for our values. Give me a strong mandate and I will lead the way for us to remain strong and united,” he said in his concluding statement.

Polling following Wednesday night’s televised debate suggests that Conservative leader Angela Swan was perceived as having given the best performances.

Liberal leader Pierre Gautain also received a slight boost which pollsters suggest may be down to a measure of sympathy as Gautain came under fire from all sides during the debate. Peter Coakson continually referred to Gautain’s turbulent year leading a minority coalition government in 2008, while UCP leader Anne Marsha Cressey suggested that Gautain’s proposed debt-reduction program would “destroy families and wreck our social institutions”. Conservative leader Angela Swan meanwhile suggested that the Liberals’ “Future First” platform was “pure marketing fluff”.

While Coakson seems set to lead his party to a victory in the first election he is facing since becoming prime minister in the wake of the collapse of the Liberal-Conservative coalition government in 2008, his own seat could still come under threat.

A movement has popped up in Coakson’s Colwyn Bay riding with many in the fisheries industry upset over his government’s commitment to restrictive quotas and downsizing the nation’s fishing fleet. The government has argued that it is “environmentally responsible” in the wake of declining fish stocks and studies indicating that many fish species are on the verge of commercial extinction.

The city of Colwyn has a long tradition as a fishing town and many in Coakson’s riding who work in the industry both fear for their jobs and are upset that their MP doesn’t seem to represent their interests.

“We all understand he has responsibilities as prime minister but what’s the use of us electing an MP who isn’t standing up for our interests?” says Martin Pyaet, a prawn processing worker who has been involved in organising voters to throw their votes to the Liberal candidate Ryan Walters, who was the closest challenger to Coakson in the 2007 election - before Coakson became prime minister.

Should Coakson lose his own seat while his party makes gains, he could still enter Parliament and remain Prime Minister by having a junior MP in a safe seat resign to allow him to win a by-election, but such a move would be highly embarrassing.

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sixfiftyfive.we-blog.ks

Final polling analysis
With the election just on the other side of the weekend it’s time to take a final look at the polling data. Barring some kind of seismic event it’s doubtful much will change in 3 days (although that’s of course baiting exactly that kind of black-swan occurrence).

Putting together averages of the 5 primary-preference polls released in the last 3 days, we get the Greens at 42%, the UCP and the Liberals both at 20%, and the Conservatives at 18%.

The Green Party seems virtually assured of remaining in government; the only real question is of whether it will be a minority or a majority. Much will depend both on how voters rank their preferences, and how the proportional representation vote will work out. The Greens lack regional strength; their support has always tended to be broad but thinly spread, which devastatingly handicapped them under the old first-past-the-post system, where in 1980 they won only two seats with a 15% share of the vote - while the Republic Party won fewer votes overall but won 18 seats because their support was more regionally concentrated.

But the Greens have the advantages this time, before we even mention the preferred Prime Minister polls. 52% would want to see Peter Coakson stay in 25 Essex, while Pierre Gautain has done so dismally this campaign that he has slipped to fourth place. The United Communist Party’s Anne Marsha Cressey is now the second-choice PM, preferred by 19%, closely followed by the Conservatives’ Angela Swan at 17%.

One significant thing I’ve seen looking at the polls in this election is the solidifying of a divide between the UCP and Green voters and the Liberal and Conservative voters. When asked to pick a second preference, the Greens are the second choice of an overwhelming 78% of UCP voters, and it goes 48% the other way. Similar numbers apply for the Liberals and Conservatives. Unlike the late 1990s till the Kerk government, there is no longer a lot of crossing-over between Liberals and Greens. The Liberals can take heart in the fact that they are, overall, the top second choice party. While they are headed to defeat in this election, the party’s base and machinery are still strong and if they rebuild the “big tent” centrist approach, there is still a path to victory in the future by winning back many of the left-leaning voters who have abandoned them.

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“The campaign is now over and after over a month of rallies, speeches, debates and promises, it’s time to see how Kelssek voted. What was the people’s verdict? Stay tuned. This is Election Night 2010.”


“Good evening, I’m Paul Featherstone and welcome to the Kelssek Broadcasting Centre in Kirkenes, our broadcast headquarters for tonight’s coverage of the 2010 general election. Over the next few hours we’re going to see how Kelssek has voted to choose the members of the 41st House of Commons, and what that will mean for the shape of our next government…”

“The first polls on the east coast will be closing in just about 8 minutes, but now here’s Brian Dewar with an introduction for our viewers who may not be familiar with Kelssek’s electoral system.”

"Thank you Paul. There are 655 seats in the House of Commons today. There are 635 electoral districts, commonly called ridings, and each elects one member of Parliament by what’s called a preferential vote or an instant-runoff vote. On the ballot, voters rank their preferences by number, so you could write a 1 for your favoured candidate, a 2 for your second choice, and so on, or just a 1 for a single candidate, as many or as few preferences as you wish. The first voting count is for the primary preferences, just the 1s. When that’s done, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and any first-preference vote for that candidate now gets credited to the voters’ second-choices, and so on, by a process of elimination until you get one person elected to the seat.

There are also 20 seats which are allocated to parties based on the share they get of the party vote. And how that works is, on the same ballot voters can make one choice out of a list of all registered political parties and that vote is tallied nationwide. And the 20 seats are given to parties to “top them up”, so if Party A won 20% of the seats, but got 40% of the party vote, Party A would get these “list seats” to give them more votes in the House, but there’s a maximum of 20 to give out. It’s intended to give some proportional representation with a compromise for the principle of representation by geographical constituency."

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“…long been established as a strong provincial party, and they draw large crowds at rallies. But it still remains to be seen if Beaulac voters will get into the habit of voting for them at the federal level. Marc Girondin, KBC News, Outineau.”

“Thank you Marc. The Bloc Beaulacois are above the 5% party vote mark right now that they need to benefit from the list seats, though that’s of course before we’ve been getting results from the western time zones so that’s obviously going to be diluted quite a bit. So far it’s looking like they will retain their one seat in Pontcroix-Riber however. Let’s turn back to the national picture now and our political panel; Greg Devries, what do you make of what we’re seeing so far?”

“It really is starting to look like a bit of a landslide for the Greens, but that’s mainly down to some really terrible results for the Liberals. So far it’s an overall 3.5% swing to the Greens but the swing we’re seeing right now from the Liberals to the Greens is at 6%, now that’s massive. It’s looking like a terrible night for Pierre Gautain and massive losses for the Liberals if this trend continues.”

“And there’s also a swing, quite a big one, from Liberals to Conservatives.”

“Yes indeed, we’re only calling 8 seats for the KCP right now but that number is likely to jump as the night goes on. Particularly in Conroy and the west, there are a lot of close Liberal-Conservative fights which we are holding off on calling either way right now but the trend, given the swing, does point to gains for the Conservatives at the expense of the Liberals, mainly. So it’s a very bad picture for them, they’re bleeding support to the left and to the right, a very vulnerable situation for them.”

“…and yes, Yann Perrault?”

“I’m just wanting to point out, Paul, the symptoms of it in the Neorvins area, kind of sum it up. Dumferline-Lionsgate, held by the Liberals for 4 elections straight, and they fell to third place, a Green gain in that riding with a Conservative in second place. Neorvins Southwest, a notional loss there as the Green MP Denise Penner holds on despite redistricting which added about 1,000 Liberal voters to her riding, and the Liberal candidate was only 559 votes ahead of the third-place Conservative when that riding was in 2007 a straight two-way fight between the Greens and Liberals.”

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“And I think for me that was the defining point of the last 3 years in this country, and in a way it was the hand that was dealt the parties after the 2007 election but it also forced the Greens and UCP to put aside their differences and really from working together, not only did the airport siege and the demonstrations show that the democratic spirit in this country is alive and well, but it also led to the left putting aside a lot of the petty squabbles between themselves that leftists are notorious for.”

“I agree with you there but let’s not forget that those events also were the start to Pierre Gautain just losing all the credibility he had up to that point. I think he’d be in good stead to win back the Prime Minister’s office today if he hadn’t displayed such ham-fisted… such poor judgement, such outstandingly terrible… I think you get the idea. And I’m not just talking about the fake e-mails affair, but also the ridiculous spectacle of being taken off a flight, drunk and in handcuffs. You could argue he’d lost the election before he’d even begun. I think the Liberal platform was a good platform, they asked a lot of very important questions that this government’s not answering, but they didn’t have to answer to the voters because Gautain just didn’t have any credibility to ask those questions.”

“Let’s turn now to some results we’re now able to confirm. The Liberal education and youth critic Eamon Cussiter will retain his seat in Erindale, managing to hold off the challenge from the Greens there despite a 0.9% swing to the Greens on the two-party preferred. And the Bloc Beaulacois have recorded a gain, a win for Jean-Henri Descrochiers in Saint-Rémy - Cartoit bringing them to two seats. This was a narrow defeat for them in 2007 but it’s turned into a narrow victory with the Liberals losing ground all around the country.”


“I think the key to that, Paul, was a lot of the Conservative and Green voters placed him as the second preference, because he was behind by about 800 votes in the first preference count but the Liberal incumbent, François Maille, got barely any secondary preference votes.”

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“…take that riding, quite reasonable, the Green candidate there could take it with the swing we’re seeing tonight, so yes, there is definitely a path to a majority for Peter Coakson tonight, but much will depend on the party vote and how the additional seats will be awarded there. If the Greens win all these key marginals, they’ve got a majority no matter what the party vote says, but that’s not entirely certain as a scenario. However, of course, it’s reasonably certain that if the party vote comes out 51% Green that’s going to do it.”

“Thank you, Andrew. And we can now confirm that whether it’s a majority or a minority Peter Coakson will be among them, despite an effort within his riding to unseat him which clearly did have an effect he’s still won about 4,000 more votes than his nearest challenger.”


“Remarkable there to see a 6% swing away, put that into perspective, he’s gone 11% in the other direction of his party nationwide so a very vocal protest against the Greens and the fishing quota restrictions. A lot of the fisheries industry workers very upset with the government’s fisheries and environmental policies and a clear expression there, despite Coakson backtracking over the weekend and saying he now would relax some of those restrictions.”

“Yes, how ironic would it be, on a night we’re asking if he’s going to win a majority government, to have lost his own riding. But that push just wasn’t enough, of course. It’s also worth mentioning that I’m getting some numbers now from exit polling data that suggests the Conservatives might have done quite a bit better in the party vote out west, so those percentage numbers are going to bear some watching as they come in. The UCP looks way too high right now at 26%, I think they’ll likely settle down at 19% or 20% by the end of the night, which is still quite a good campaign for them.”

“With that said let’s turn back to a look at how the party vote could turn out and the implications. We’re going back to Andrew Walton now, and he’s been crunching the numbers, Andrew?”