No Shame in Deterrence

Marcelo sat at his desk, fidgeting with his pen. As was customary on the last Friday of every month, he had been meeting with each of the Ministers, to be briefed on the current goings on in Government. It was now Foreign Affair’s turn… but he was late, as was usual. Then, a pair of footsteps down the hall, and a frantic fiddling with the doorknob.

“Marcelo! Sorry I’m late. I had some last minute messages to send, I hope I didn’t leave you waiting too long.”

“It’s not an issue, Márcio,” The Prime Minister said, putting down the pen. “At this point, I’d be surprised if you got here on time.”

The large Ursine sat down, giving a nervous smile. “Well, I-”

“I assure you he had good reason this time,” Said the Minister of National Defence, stepping into the room from behind Márcio. “The Minister and I have been… discussing the state of the region. And we thought you’d like to hear what we think.”

The Prime Minister leaned forward in his chair. “I assume these are not good news.”

“Yes… and no.” The Minister of Defence said.

“Well, for starters, Jiduan has reached out,” Márcio butted in, adjusting his wireframe glasses. “They believe that forging closer bonds with us will prove fruitful for both our states. And Garcia suggested we could extend the offer of military cooperation.”

“However, any sort of move like this might attract the wrong kind of International attention,” Said Garcia, resting her hands of the Prime Minister’s desk. “Fortuna might see us cooperating as a threat.”

The Prime Minister leaned back on his chair. “So what you’re saying is… we need some sort of assurance that we are not to be trifled with.”

“Correct,” Márcio said. “Garcia and I suggest… a deterrent.”

The Prime Minister furrowed his brow, weighing his options. “A deterrent? It sounds aggressive. Are we prepared to escalate tensions in the region?”

Garcia crossed her arms, leaning slightly closer. “Deterrence doesn’t have to be about aggression. It’s about stability. If we show strength, it signals to potential aggressors that we’re not an easy target.”

“True, but we also risk alienating Jiduan,” Marcelo replied, his voice cautious. “They’re reaching out for cooperation. We don’t want to push them away before we even start.”

Márcio nodded. “I understand your reservations, but consider this: If we don’t act decisively, we risk leaving both us and Jiduan vulnerable. Either Fortuna or Packilvania could see an opportunity to expand their control in the region.”

“But how do we strike that balance?” Marcelo asked, glancing between them. “I don’t want us to appear as warmongers to the Jiduani.”

Garcia stood up straight. “We can implement a deterrent strategy that emphasises defensive measures. A few joint military exercises with Jiduan, a limited deployment of assets along the border, perhaps even intelligence sharing. It demonstrates our commitment to mutual security without coming off as overtly aggressive.”

Márcio chimed in. “And we can publicly frame this as a proactive step for peace, reinforcing our desire for stability in the region. We can build narratives around collaboration rather than confrontation.”

The Prime Minister considered this, tapping his fingers on the desk. “And if the Fortunans react negatively? Will they interpret our actions as a direct challenge?”

“They will,” Garcia replied bluntly. “But that’s part of the strategy. By establishing ourselves as a formidable ally to Jiduan, we deter potential hostilities. It sends a message: any aggression will be met with a unified response.”

Marcelo leaned back, deep in thought. “It’s a high-stakes gamble. But you two make it appetising.”

Márcio leaned forward. “It’s about protecting our interests, and ensuring that we don’t become pawns in a larger game. We have to show that we are prepared to defend our allies.”

The Prime Minister took a long pause, finally nodding. “Very well. Let’s move forward with this deterrent strategy - but make sure that our diplomatic channels remain open with Jiduan. We have to communicate our intentions clearly.”

Garcia smiled, relieved. “I’ll begin drafting a plan with General Staff.”

“Good. And we all better pray that this works.”

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The Prime Minister stood from his seat in the Assembly hall, holding a small bundle of papers.

“I have an announcement to make to the Assembly regarding a new Alliance between the Republic of Beirais and the Nation of Jiduan. Given our shared values and interest in lasting stability in the region, we have decided to extend to them a offer for a mutual cooperation treaty. We aim to make this treaty a sign of future Beiran foreign policy in the region. The Treaty, drafted earlier this week, underscores both nations’ pledge to support each other in times of crisis. Article I of the Agreement reads as follows:”

Henceforth, we declare that there shall exist between the Republic of Beirais and the Nation of Jiduan a true, constant, and enduring partnership, founded upon mutual respect and shared values, committed to defending each other’s sovereignty and fostering the advancement of peace and prosperity.

“The treaty my cabinet has drafted is to be presented to the Jiduani this next Wednesday, along with an invitation to join us in discussion of the finer details of the Treaty in the Chanel Isle Airfield. On the National Defence side, the treaty is a promise of mutual territorial defence in the Cerenerian Ocean through joint patrols, establishing standardized communication streams with both of our nation’s armed forces, along with intelligence sharing agreements. On the economic side, the Treaty will establish official avenues of currency exchange, and favorable import/export tariffs for both nations. It will also contain an agreement for ease of travel between both states. Both nations will pledge to equally fulfil each part of the treaty.”

“Will Your Excellency consider inviting other Nations to observe the negotiations?” Asked a Left Bloc MP.

“We have considered inviting Packilvania to observe the treaty talks. It is currently undecided. We are considering inquiring the Jiduani on this matter first.”

A Lusos Party MP stood up. “If any external power should perceive this alliance as a threat, will it be made clear that Beirais and Jiduan will stand united in defense against any hostility?”

“I have nothing further to add at this time. We will await Jiduan’s response to our invitation.”

And so, on the following Wednesday, a letter was sent to the Jiduani Prime Minister that read:

TO: Prime Minister Golna
Jiduan

Esteemed Prime Minister,

I hope this message finds you well. We are reaching out to invite you to discussing further details of future cooperation between us. We have drafted a Treaty that we would like to further work on with you. As such, we formally invite you to join us in the military airfield at the Chanel Isle to begin working on the document together.

There is also another matter. As a show of goodwill, we have considered inviting Packilvania to observe the talks. They would not be considered a part of the agreement, and would only be present as a show of good faith from both our Governments to the Sultan. Such an invitation would only be sent if you agree to it, naturally.

We hope you accept our invitation and that this may be the beginning of a long and fruitful partnership.

Kind Regards,

Marcelo Pires Magalhães
Prime Minister of Beirais
Republic of Beirais

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To: Prime Minister Magalhães

Esteemed Prime Minister,

We are honoured to be invited and are looking forward to discussing the details of a Treaty and our future.

I agree with your assessment as well. I believe it would be a good idea to have Packilvania diplomatically observe the signing of the agreement, assuming they agree to observe.

We’ll be meeting you shortly.

Best Regards,

Sulemala Golna
Prime Minister of Jiduan

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With the reply letter received, preparations for the talks began in earnest. The Lajes airbase on the Chanel Isle had been chosen for the meeting, because it was the closest military base to Jiduan Geographically. But the base had never been used for diplomatic meetings, and so many last-minute repairs and cleanups had to be made. While the preparations were underway, a letter was drafted and sent to the Packilvanian Government that read as follows:

TO: Alawadun a-Jibrael Bedon
Minister of Foreigh Affairs
Sultanate of Packilvania

Esteemed Minister Alawadun,

I hope this message finds you well. In my capacity as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Beirais, I am inviting you to attend diplomatic talks at the Lajes Airbase on the Chanel Isle.

The Republic of Beirais and the State of Jiduan have decided to forge closer ties, which involve economic and military partnership. Given the Sultanate also has a presence in the region, we have both agreed to host you in the talks as an observer, as a gesture of goodwill. Our ultimate goal is furthering stability in the region, and we both believe that entails stable relations with the Sultanate.

Should you agree to personally attend or send a representative, the Government of Beirais will provide payment for lodging in the Chanel Isle for the duration of the talks. We await your response.

Kind Regards,

Márcio Egas Moniz
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Republic of Beirais

Official Communique of Packilvania
Lukhaman Lumalayka aluBakhilfaniya
Esteemed Minister Moniz,

The Sultanate of Packilvania receives the invitation extended by the Republic of Beirais and the State of Jiduan. The Sultanate acknowledges the importance of fostering open communication and stable relations with its neighbors. Accordingly, the Sultanate will be dispatching a trusted representative to observe the discussions, with the aim of gaining a clearer understanding of the objectives that Beirais and Jiduan seek to advance through this economic and military partnership.

We appreciate your offer to provide lodging during the talks, and my office will coordinate arrangements directly with yours.

Blessed Assimilation,
His Imperial Highness | Luwaluf lushultayna abumedaqa
Prince Alawadun a-Jibrael Bedon
Minister of Foreign Affairs | Luvazeer aleNaws leZayna