SUPPORT FROM FORMER DELEGATES
The East Pacific is a democracy, not an oligarchy. That said, every regional government within NationStates has a degree of oligarchic rule. There is the case to be made that oligarchy can be democratic, simply because “oligarchy” means “rule by the few.” Of course, this is not what anyone means when calling a government oligarchic. They mean that a selective, elite few rule without consulting the governed or caring for their popular assent. The East Pacific, in this way, is not an oligarchy.
That said, the small nature of The East Pacific’s government leaves a select few with much power. Certainly not a selective group, nor an elite one. Certainly not without consulting the governed and certainly not without caring for their popular assent. If it was described as an oligarchy, it could be technically correct, but an oligarchy which anyone could reasonably join is better called a democracy, anyway, no matter what institutions are in place. And I do note that institutions are in place which keep this oligarchic nature from ever becoming exclusive, if the few with power ever desired it.
That said, the will of the people and the will of prominent politicians, especially former Delegates, often coincides. In part, this could largely be the result of a small politically active citizenry, wherein many active voters tend to hold high positions. Indeed the past three Delegates both continue to serve in a leadership capacity within the current Delegate’s cabinet, and cast a vote in the last election. It could also simply be a coincidence – former Delegates are citizens, and so the will of the people would sometimes align with the will of individual people, regardless of political status.
I believe both these explanations are valid and applicable in this case, but I also propose a third explanation which supplements these two - voters who are uninvolved in Executive leadership tend to look to current and former Executive leaders as signposts for who the active, dedicated, experienced, and trustworthy candidates truly are. Indeed, I believe a separate paper analyzing the “follow the leader” effects of voting (I would not go so far as to call them “Lemmings” given the lack of really negative consequences) could be in order to provide the evidence behind this, but for now, I believe a simple overview of elections shows that this is certainly a possibility.
Although the election of Marrabuk was a unique situation where his direct predecessor was engaging in acts of treason and high treason against the government, we still see previous delegates supporting Marrabuk’s candidacy, specifically older Delegates. By my count and notes, 9/9 (100%) of post-coup Delegates received support from former delegates in their first election. Re-elections are disregarded largely because (a) the individual has already become Delegate and (b) the incumbency advantage, which I discuss in a different essay, likely has a stronger influence than others.
Interestingly, however, we don’t see consensus among former Delegates. Again disregarding how the specific circumstances of Marrabuk’s election influenced his predecessor’s vote for his competitor, we see 7/8 (87.5%) of other post-coup Delegates were voted against by at least one former Delegate. Curiously, I am the only Delegate who received the votes of all former Delegates who voted in my election. Although it takes great effort to do so, I will refrain from using this knowledge to assert my superiority and instead discuss how strange it must seem for opposition from former delegates to be almost as prevalent as support from former delegates.
But of course we don’t see consensus. Despite the Pax memes, The East Pacific is not a hivemind, and of course our former Delegates are bound to disagree. Of course not all former Delegates are going to vote for the person who wins. Even in a relatively small community, the odds of that are low. However, we do see in the case of every postcoup Delegate – and I’m sure this trend has basis in the pre-coup era as well, given Fedele’s endorsement by his own predecessor – that at least one former Delegate, often two or more, vote for the winner.
This trend, and my presentation thereof, may be misleading. Of course, as Mark Twain put it, “There’s lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Do I think this data means you NEED the support of the ELITES to even CONSIDER being elected in this SHAM OF A DEMOCRACY? No. Of course it doesn’t mean that. But I do think that, if you haven’t convinced any of the former Delegates, which are sometimes among the most active voting citizens, then you’ve likely not convinced the people of TEP.
In some ways, I do think the support of a former Delegate influences the support of the masses, but predominantly the support of a former Delegate is no more than the support of an expert. It is the support of someone who knows what the job is, how hard it is, someone who knows the political environment. If someone who knows how hard the job is thinks you can do it, then you can probably do it. It means your campaign is more than political theory, it’s solid political strategy. It means the people who put their blood, sweat, and tears into the region think you’d be good for it.
Do I think this can still be an issue? An unintentional subversion of our democracy? Emphatically, no. There is no provision that enables this, and no provision to address it which would not be undemocratic, except perhaps secret ballots, which I personally find unfeasible due to complexity and security concerns. If we try to “fix” this, we will only wound the system in a different way. And again, I don’t believe this is a bad thing. Former Delegates are citizens, and citizens are entitled to cast their votes as they wish.
It doesn’t even fundamentally alter our democracy. I noted that not all voting former Delegates support the winning horse, but to expand on that, on every close race we’ve had – Libertanny and Zukchiva in June 2020, The Atlae Isles and New Leganes in June 2021, Altys and East Malaysia in February 2023, and Merlovich and Dremaur in October 2023 – both of the two main competitors had support from at least one former delegate. The individuality and differing political beliefs of former Delegates are clearly enough to prevent subversion by some elusive, evil “former Delegate voting bloc”.
In fact, if we consider what this means, more, we note that both candidates received the expert vote of confidence that acts as an assurance to the often hasty or impassioned citizenry that their favorite for the office has what it takes. That, to me, is the ultimate relief. It means that there hasn’t been a close race in post-coup TEP where an unqualified candidate was close to achieving the Delegacy. It’s an assurance that our region is in good hands. It’s a security mechanism in and of itself – if ever a candidate who isn’t ready for the stresses of the Delegacy has popular support, the lack of support from former Delegates could prevent that majority – either due to the low number of voters anyway, or due to the “follow the leader” effect.
I confidently put the support from former delegates as a mandatory “prerequisite” for election, not because of elitist oligarchic string pulling or because of any failure of democracy, but because the goalpost of any delegate hopeful should be to convince the former delegates, those experts on the position. It’s harder to convince a former Delegate than any other given voter, statistically speaking, and so aiming to get support from the Delegate is somewhat comparable to aiming to get support from the hardest-won supporter. If your vision and your dedication and your experience wins the support of at least one former Delegate, then it’s not just a sign that you have a better chance of winning, but that you have a better chance of doing a good job if you do.