[spoiler]Geopolitical Threat Assessment
Preface
Cognizant of the glaring challenges and sensitive to the foreboding events on mainland Aurora, the Cabinet of the Oan Isles has instructed the Oan Department of Foreign Affairs to prepare a geopolitical threat assessment report (GTA) to aid the member states and policymakers of the United Nations of the Auroran Continent (UNAC) to mitigate against what we believe are imminent threats to the UNAC. The Oan government wanted to share this information with UNAC member states because our government believes that this threat affects all of us. We have worked with the Oan intelligence community and we would like to thank them for their assistance and support in preparing this report.
Kia Ora,
Arana Marama
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Tipene Rahua
Director of the Oan Intelligence Bureau
Introduction
Background
In simple terms, we believe that another major war is imminent in Aurora. The terrorist attack in East Caltharus, Great Morstaybishlia displays the political, security, economic and social issues that will threaten the stability of UNAC and its member states. This incident among others indicates that our existing security protocols need to be reassessed and new mechanisms to deal with and prevent these threats need to be developed. State and non-state actors are using longstanding political disputes, ethnic and religious differences, and economic inequality to foment insurgencies that lead to the fragmentation of the UNAC. The dangers cannot be overstated.
Aims of the Report
· To gain a full picture of the geopolitical threats facing the UNAC.
· To provide solutions which policymakers can implement quickly.
· To provide long-term strategies that will prevent security threats in the future.
Methodology
In this report we used the following techniques to collate data:
· Economic and demographic statistics
· Geographical conditions and environmental issues
· Legislation and policy, political systems, and current affairs
Relevant Events
As we are all familiar with the events in Great Morstaybishlia, we will not go into details, but highlight relevant points.
There are sectarian tensions along ethnic lines in Great Morstaybishlia. The emergence of separatist political movements whether within or out of mainstream politics such as the Valerian labour faction (calling for the secession of Aegis in particular and South Staynes more broadly) and the Nocturne Independence Party (which is pushing for Nocturne to have more autonomy and even independence) is worrying.
Secondly, the terrorist attack which led to deaths - while not specifically linked to the aforementioned political parties and movements - shows that anti-Morstaybishlian organisations are able to operate with impunity, procure highly restricted military-grade weapons and have the logistical capacity to organize large operations. The arrest of Schneider and Jordanes indicates that ideological and psychological tools are being used to foment sectarian tensions and legitimize secessionist or anti-Morstaybishlian sentiments.
Socio-economic Issues
The most populous and prosperous region of Great Morstaybishlia is Staynes. The presence of oil and fertile land has enabled this region to outpace other Morstaybishlian constituent countries. We would argue, that the presence of high-paying jobs and business opportunities in Staynes is causing the young educated population to leave South Staynes and East Caltharus for Staynes. We would argue that the less educated workers left behind in South Staynes are frustrated by the poor economic situation and neglect they are faced with. Moreover, the fragmentation of families due to internal migration is creating a sense of panic and loss in the remaining population.
A second point is that Ethalrian and Salovian minorities in the Nocturne and greater East Caltharusian regions have wildly different ideas about how a country should be run. This stems from a combination of highly community-driven and somewhat aggressive ideals. These conditions are ripe for state and non-state actors to exploit. Potential actors could be religious organisations, ethnocentric civic organizations and political parties, and populist movements. Great Morstaybishlia has many historic enemies and its economy is too closely linked with other states, thus the effect of issues there will damage all of us.
Supranational Issues
Free travel has been very useful in creating economic prosperity by creating cross-border job opportunities and technical and intellectual exchanged. On the other hand, ports of entry have been left dangerously under-protected and migration controls are poor. The fact that a faction of terrorists was able to import military-grade weapons into Nocturne and carry out a terrorist attack of the scale and nature that we saw, indicates the poor controls in place and the susceptibility of public officials to corruption. We would also argue that tools to monitor financial transactions are poor as this organization was able to access and use cash to fund their operations.
The fact that there was no warning from the Auroran Security Agency indicates that the broader Auroran intelligence community is not adequately integrated. Information is not being adequately shared and analysed and the ASA lacks the expertise, resources and leadership to mitigate these intense threats. Moreover, the UNAC does not have the financial tools to provide member states with the financial support required to alleviate poverty and address economic inequality.
Recommendations
In light of these findings, we recommend the following:
· The leadership of the ASA must be changed. A new director must be appointed, and we must explore moving the headquarters of the ASA to a more secure country.
· Data on goods and people entering a nation’s borders must be shared with the ASA. Increased measures such as biometric scanning at points of entry must be used to track the identity of people moving across borders.
· Financial transactions above 100,000 KRB or at least 3 successive transactions of 10,000 KRB must be reported to the ASA
· Critical infrastructure such as power plants, government buildings and water reservoirs must-have emergency military deployments such as anti-aircraft systems and infantry to defend them.
· Baykalia and Thalria must be required to allow the ASA to conduct investigations on the circulation of anti-UNAC and anti-Morstaybishlian propaganda and movement of illicit money and goods.
· The proposal on the Auroran Monetary Fund must be adopted urgently to leverage the funding required to provide development assistance, especially to violent-prone areas.
· Emergency protocols must be implemented so that the Auroran Standing Force can be deployed quickly. Moreover, we would suggest that nations increase their personnel deployments.
Conclusion
In conclusion, if Great Morstaybishlia falls, we all follow. The events in that country are too convenient to be coincidental and we need to watch it carefully. We need to protect critical infrastructure, share information and reform the ASA. The future of the UNAC is very fragile and we need to be ready.
[/spoiler]
Official Communication of the Oan Isles
To: President of the UNAC Commission
From: Prime Minister of the Oan Isles
Subject: Geopolitical Threat Assessment
Kia ora Lara Tarasovna
The Oan Isles humbly requests that the above report is circulated to member states and that an emergency virtual session is held to adopt its provisions. This report is top secret and only for the eyes of the Council, Commission President and Commissioner for Peace and Security.
With respect,
Maui Uye-Ahua
